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Published on: July 18, 2014
Lifetime risk of developing coronary heart disease
D M Lloyd-Jones1, M G Larson, A Beiser
1National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute's Framingham Heart Study, National Institutes of Health, Massachusetts 01702, USA. dan@fram.nhlbi.nih.gov
The lifetime risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD) is substantial for both men and women. At age 40, men have a 48.6% risk and women a 31.7% risk, highlighting the need for prevention.
Area of Science:
- Cardiovascular epidemiology
- Preventive cardiology
Background:
- Lifetime risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) has not been previously estimated in a general population.
- Investigating initial coronary events across different age groups is crucial for public health.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the lifetime risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD) from age 40 onwards.
- To analyze these risks by sex and age at diagnosis.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from 7733 participants in the Framingham Heart Study, free of CHD at baseline (1971-1975).
- Employed multiple-decrement life-table methods to calculate lifetime risks of CHD events, including angina pectoris, coronary insufficiency, myocardial infarction, or CHD death.
- Followed participants for a total of 109,948 person-years.
Main Results:
- Overall, 1157 participants developed CHD.
- At age 40, the estimated lifetime risk of CHD was 48.6% for men and 31.7% for women.
- At age 70, the lifetime risk decreased to 34.9% for men and 24.2% for women.
Conclusions:
- Lifetime risk of CHD at age 40 is approximately 1 in 2 for men and 1 in 3 for women.
- Even at age 70, the lifetime risk remains significant: 1 in 3 for men and 1 in 4 for women.
- Findings underscore the importance of education, screening, and early treatment for CHD prevention across all age groups.
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