Shelf life of modified atmosphere packed cooked meat products: a predictive model

The effect of temperature, concentration of dissolved CO2 and water activity on the growth of Lactobacillus sake was investigated by developing predictive models for the lag phase and the maximum specific growth rate of this specific spoilage organism for gas-packed cooked meat products. Two types of predictive model were compared: an extended Ratkowsky model and a response surface model. In general, response surface models showed a slightly better correlation, but the response surface model for the maximum specific growth rate showed illogical predictions at low water activities. The concentration of dissolved CO2 proved to be a significant independent variable for the maximum specific growth rate as well as for the lag phase of L. sake. Synergistic actions on the shelf life-extending effect were noticed between temperature and dissolved CO2, as well as between water activity and dissolved CO2. The developed models were validated by comparison with the existing model of Kant-Muermans et al. (1997) and by means of experiments in gas-packed cooked meat products. Both developed models proved to be useful in the prediction of the microbial shelf life of gas-packed cooked meat products.