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Published on: January 5, 2018
(Non)complementary updating of belief in two hypotheses
1Department of Psychology, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla 92093-0109, USA. cmckenzie@ucsd.edu
Memory & Cognition
|March 24, 1999
Summary
Confidence in competing hypotheses can be represented dependently or independently. Complementary confidence changes occur in dependent representations and sometimes in independent ones, challenging prior assumptions.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Decision Making
- Medical Diagnosis
Background:
- Previous research suggested confidence in competing hypotheses is always dependent and updated complementarily.
- This study challenges the notion that complementary confidence updates necessitate dependent hypothesis representation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate whether confidence in two hypotheses can be represented independently.
- To determine the conditions under which confidence changes are complementary for independent hypothesis representations.
Main Methods:
- Three simulated medical diagnosis experiments were conducted.
- Participants learned about two illnesses, fostering either dependent or independent confidence.
- Confidence updates were measured after sequential presentation of symptoms.
Main Results:
- Complementary confidence changes were observed for dependent, but not independent, representations in Experiment 1.
- Encouraging consideration of alternatives increased complementary changes in independent representations (Experiment 2).
- Experiment 3 successfully induced complementary changes in independent representations.
Conclusions:
- Complementarity of confidence changes does not exclusively imply dependent hypothesis representation.
- Independent hypothesis representation can lead to complementary confidence changes under specific conditions.
- Findings refine understanding of how confidence is updated when evaluating competing hypotheses.
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