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Related Experiment Videos

Similarity between hypotheses and evidence.

Y Rottenstreich1, L Brenner, S Sood

  • 1Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago,IL 60637, USA. yuval.rottenstreich@gsb.uchicago.edu

Cognitive Psychology
|March 26, 1999
PubMed
Summary
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Similarity judgments can lead to probability errors by misplacing features. This research reveals how evidence and hypothesis locations impact perceived similarity, affecting likelihood judgments and support theory principles.

Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Science
  • Probability Theory

Background:

  • Likelihood judgments are fundamental to reasoning and decision-making.
  • Similarity is a key factor influencing these judgments.
  • Existing models may not fully capture the nuances of similarity-based judgments.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate novel consequences of similarity-based likelihood judgment.
  • To differentiate between evidence and hypotheses in judgment formation.
  • To analyze the impact of feature location on perceived similarity and probability assessments.

Main Methods:

  • Distinguishing between evidence and hypotheses as objects of judgment.
  • Examining the influence of feature location (evidence vs. hypothesis) on similarity.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Analyzing judgment of disjunctive hypotheses and their support.

    • Main Results:

    • Feature location significantly influences perceived similarity, leading to probability judgments inconsistent with probability theory.
    • Similarity assessment in disjunctive hypotheses can result in nonmonotonicity, where a disjunction has less support than one of its components.
    • Findings highlight potential violations of probability axioms due to similarity-based reasoning.

    Conclusions:

    • The location of features in evidence or hypotheses critically affects likelihood judgments.
    • Similarity-based judgments can lead to systematic biases, particularly with disjunctive hypotheses.
    • Implications for support theory and context independence principles are discussed, suggesting a need for refined models of judgment and decision-making.