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Related Experiment Videos

Educated guesswork.

J Kosterlitz

    National Journal
    |September 10, 1991
    PubMed
    Summary
    This summary is machine-generated.

    Federal program cost estimates are widely supported to control government spending. However, this study questions the accuracy and reliability of these crucial financial projections.

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    Area of Science:

    • Public Policy
    • Government Finance
    • Economics

    Background:

    • Federal programs often face scrutiny regarding budget overruns.
    • Cost estimates are intended to provide financial foresight for government initiatives.
    • Rising budget deficits increase the importance of accurate fiscal planning.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To evaluate the precision and dependability of cost estimates for federal programs.
    • To identify potential shortcomings in current federal cost estimation methodologies.
    • To inform policy discussions on improving fiscal accountability in government spending.

    Main Methods:

    • Analysis of historical cost data for a diverse range of federal projects.
    • Comparison of initial cost estimates against final expenditures.

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  • Statistical assessment of estimation accuracy and bias.

    • Main Results:

    • Cost estimates for federal programs frequently deviate significantly from actual expenditures.
    • A consistent pattern of underestimation was observed across various program types.
    • The reliability of current estimation methods is questionable, potentially impacting fiscal oversight.

    Conclusions:

    • The effectiveness of cost estimates in curbing government spending is limited by their inherent inaccuracies.
    • There is a critical need for enhanced methodologies to improve the reliability of federal cost projections.
    • Improving cost estimation accuracy is essential for responsible fiscal management and deficit reduction.