Strategic planning futurists need to be capitation-specific and epidemiological

Strategic planning has always been a proposition of envisioning an organization's future state, then working backward, quarter by quarter, year by year, to plot a course of action. The surer the vision, the surer the course. In our burgeoning capitated environment, the successful provider will clarify a singular vision: to manage health care for a defined population. The key will be to understand the changing needs of covered lives and to prepare the organization to serve those needs. Gone are the days when mere responsiveness to market needs and preferences could secure a hospital's competitive advantage. Nimble, surefooted, practically clairvoyant--the emerging health care leader will listen to reliable epidemiologic information and custom-design its future. Timing is everything. Depending only your market's readiness for capitation, epidemiologic research and planning techniques may not prove critical to your organization for five to seven years. Good thing, too, because a few years may be just the head start many hospitals and health care systems need. Now is the time to lay the groundwork, to cultivate new planning techniques that will work under capitation, and to jettison any outdated modes of strategic thinking. Assemble all the talent and knowledge you need, then give your best minds ample room to do their work.