Determinants of survival in HIV-positive patients

Variation in the clinical stage at which AIDS is diagnosed has hindered the ability of investigators to generate survival estimates which are stable across study cohorts. As a result, little is known about how clinical and sociodemographic factors are associated with survival, independent of AIDS diagnosis stage. By estimating survival following seroconversion while adjusting for baseline CD4 lymphocyte count, the present study generated survival determinants which were unconfounded by time-related changes in AIDS diagnosis. This study's findings indicate that the following factors were associated with significant decreases in HIV-related survival: older age; self-report of no known HIV transmission risk factors; and presence of cytomegalovirus, Mycobacterium avium complex, and Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia. Furthermore, survival decreased in a monotonic fashion with decreases in baseline CD4 count and with increases in calendar period. While this study's findings are consistent with previous investigators' reports of AIDS survival determinants, it will be important for future investigators to refine and update estimates of HIV-related survival determinants as clinical care for HIV-infected patients continues to improve.