Tobacco smoking as a risk factor in anal carcinoma: an antiestrogenic mechanism?

Human papillomavirus-associated anogenital carcinogenesis depends on poorly defined cofactors. Smoking was recently suggested to increase the risk of anal cancer more in premenopausal women than in postmenopausal women. Thus, we used our population-based anal cancer case-control study in Denmark and Sweden to test this hypothesis.

Our study included 417 patients (324 women and 93 men) who were diagnosed with anal cancer (84% invasive cancer) from 1991 through 1994; it also included five patients diagnosed in 1995. Two control groups were used: 1) 554 population control subjects (349 women and 205 men) and 2) 534 patients with rectal adenocarcinoma (343 women and 191 men). Odds ratios (ORs), calculated from logistic regression analyses, were used as measures of relative risk. All P values are two-sided.

Compared with the risk for lifelong nonsmokers, the risk of anal cancer was high among premenopausal women who currently smoked tobacco (multivariate OR = 5.6; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.4-12.7) and increased linearly by 6.7% per pack-year smoked (one pack-year is equivalent to one pack of cigarettes smoked per day for 1 year) (P for trend <.001). Smoking was not statistically significantly associated with anal cancer risk in postmenopausal women or men. Women whose menstrual periods started late were at high risk (multivariate OR = 3.6; 95% CI = 1.8-7.3, for > or = 17 years of age versus < or = 12 years of age; P for trend <.001), and body mass index (weight in kg/[height in m]2) was inversely associated with risk among women (P<.001).

Because the risk of anal cancer associated with smoking was restricted to premenopausal women and because higher risk was associated with late menarche and lean body composition, female sex hormones may be a factor in anal cancer development in women. Since the anal mucosa is an estrogen-sensitive area, we hypothesize an antiestrogenic mechanism of action for smoking in anal carcinogenesis.