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Related Experiment Videos

The dynamics of mass migration.

D S Massey1, R M Zenteno

  • 1Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6298, USA. dmassey@lexis.pop.upenn.edu

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|April 29, 1999
PubMed
Summary
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This study models international migration dynamics using Mexican data. Dynamic migration schedules significantly alter population projections, revealing flaws in standard methods.

Area of Science:

  • Sociology
  • Demography
  • Economics

Background:

  • International migration is a complex phenomenon with self-feeding characteristics.
  • Social capital theory posits mechanisms of cumulative causation in migration.
  • Standard population projection methods may not capture dynamic migration patterns.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and estimate a dynamic model of international migration.
  • To project population changes under varying migration assumptions.
  • To quantify the impact of cumulative causation on migration.

Main Methods:

  • Specified a dynamic model of international migration with equations.
  • Estimated model parameters using specially collected Mexican data.
  • Projected a hypothetical Mexican community population over 50 years under three migration scenarios.

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Main Results:

  • Dynamic migration schedules, unlike constant probabilities, were modeled.
  • The model quantified cumulative causation mechanisms.
  • Standard projection methodologies showed significant shortcomings.

Conclusions:

  • Failure to dynamically model migration schedules overestimates population size.
  • Inaccurate projections result for U.S. migrants and migratory experience prevalence.
  • Dynamic modeling is crucial for accurate international migration and population studies.