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Related Experiment Videos

Future forecasting with LEAP.

J F Preble

    Long Range Planning
    |July 10, 1982
    PubMed
    Summary
    This summary is machine-generated.

    Environmental assessment is crucial for businesses in dynamic markets. The Likelihood of Events Assessment Process (LEAP) offers a novel forecasting method for turbulent business environments.

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    Area of Science:

    • Business Strategy
    • Environmental Scanning
    • Forecasting Methodologies

    Background:

    • Businesses face rapid environmental changes, necessitating strategic planning.
    • Traditional forecasting methods like trend analysis suit stable, short-term scenarios.
    • Turbulent environments require advanced, long-term planning approaches.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • Introduce the Likelihood of Events Assessment Process (LEAP) as a novel forecasting tool.
    • Demonstrate LEAP's application in predicting future business events.
    • Provide insights for strategic planning in complex socio-political business contexts.

    Main Methods:

    • Development of the Likelihood of Events Assessment Process (LEAP).
    • Case study involving top-level life insurance executives.

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  • Predicting the likelihood of socio-political event occurrence and planning dates.

    • Main Results:

    • LEAP provides a structured approach to forecasting in uncertain business landscapes.
    • The study successfully applied LEAP to predict event likelihoods within the life insurance sector.
    • Identified key socio-political factors influencing business planning.

    Conclusions:

    • LEAP is a valuable tool for strategic foresight in volatile business environments.
    • Forecasting event likelihoods aids in robust strategic decision-making.
    • The method offers a systematic way to navigate business uncertainty.