Implications of recent mortality trends for the size and composition of the population over 65

Recent mortality declines have been concentrated at the older ages and in the degenerative diseases. In order to examine the implications for the future of continuation of this mortality decline, cause-specific mortality rates by age are projected to the year 2000 assuming that the cause-specific rates of decline experienced during the past decade continue. The projection shows that if such rates of decline persist, by the year 2000 there will be a substantial increase in life expectancy at ages 65 and above and the number of people now over age 65 will be almost 4 million greater than that now officially projected by the U.S. government.