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Forecasting expenditure on capital projects.

A Z Keller, N F Green, R A Ashrafi

    Long Range Planning
    |July 9, 1984
    PubMed
    Summary
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    This study compares two S-curve models for project planning. Both models demonstrated comparable accuracy in fitting expenditure data, with the DHSS model offering greater simplicity.

    Area of Science:

    • Project Management
    • Construction Economics
    • Operations Research

    Background:

    • S-curves are essential tools for project planning, forecasting, and control of cost, time, and resources.
    • Existing S-curve models require validation and comparison for practical application in health building projects.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To compare the predictive accuracy and ease of use of two S-curve models: the Department of Health and Social Security (DHSS) model and the Bradford University (Keller-Singh) model.
    • To validate these models using expenditure data from 21 U.K. health building projects.

    Main Methods:

    • Utilized the method of least squares to estimate model parameters.
    • Categorized model parameters based on total project cost.
    • Validated S-curve models against actual project expenditure data.

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    Main Results:

    • Both the DHSS and Keller-Singh S-curve models exhibited comparable accuracy in fitting actual expenditure data.
    • The DHSS model offers significant advantages in terms of simplicity of form and ease of use.
    • The Keller-Singh model, despite slightly greater mathematical complexity, provides readily interpretable parameters.

    Conclusions:

    • Both the DHSS and Keller-Singh S-curve models are suitable for effective project cost planning and control.
    • Clients and contractors can utilize either model, or both, for enhanced project management.
    • The choice between models may depend on the desired balance between simplicity and parameter interpretability.