An approach to estimating future manpower requirements in physical and occupational therapy

This paper reports the approach used in a physical therapy (PT) and occupational therapy (OT) manpower requirements study conducted in British Columbia, Canada. A total of 426 questionnaires were mailed to likely employers of PTs and OTs, and to PTs in private practice. After telephone reminders and a second mailing, the overall response rate was 83.3%. The results of the survey indicated that, by 1986, respective PT and OT department heads were anticipating a 60% increase in demand for PTs and a 102% increase for OTs, while agency administrators were suggesting a 76% increase for PTs and a 142% increase for OTs. Although a variety of factors--all largely beyond the control of both respondents and researchers--will determine the degree to which these estimates actually reflect the future demand for these manpower groups, it should be noted that, for both disciplines, the anticipated increase was substantially greater than the level experienced in the five years preceding the survey. The estimation approach used in this study considers nonrespondents; it is a procedure which permits investigators to offer a more accurate picture of the current manpower situation while using a more realistic base on which to estimate future requirements. The development of the requirement side in the supply/requirement equations of manpower studies may be well served in the future with this approach.