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A population dynamics simulation model with application to health planning.

J L Sanders

    The Journal of Health Administration Education
    |February 4, 1987
    PubMed
    Summary

    This study introduces a simplified population modeling approach for health services students, enabling analysis of population dynamics and facility planning without advanced programming skills. The method uses branching processes for accessible systems analysis.

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    Area of Science:

    • Health Services Administration
    • Quantitative Methods
    • Systems Analysis

    Background:

    • Health services programs increasingly use quantitative methods.
    • Students often lack programming and simulation expertise for advanced tools like discrete event simulation.
    • This limits their ability to perform complex systems analysis.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To present a simplified population modeling approach for health services students.
    • To enable modeling of population growth and decline without extensive quantitative backgrounds.
    • To facilitate policy analysis for resource allocation, such as long-term care facilities.

    Main Methods:

    • Utilizes vector Galton-Watson branching processes for population dynamics.
    • Develops an age and sex-specific population growth model.

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  • Implements calculations using standard spreadsheet programs on microcomputers.

    • Main Results:

    • The model effectively simulates population group growth and decline.
    • It allows investigation of policy questions, exemplified by long-term care facility feasibility.
    • The approach is accessible to students with limited quantitative backgrounds.

    Conclusions:

    • This simplified modeling technique provides powerful systems analysis tools for health services students.
    • It supports data-driven planning and policy decisions regarding population health needs.
    • The methodology is extendable to include disease impact and control program analysis.