Are there health risks in using risking systems? The case of perinatal risk assessment

Health risk management is receiving widespread public and professional attention. Relationships between risks and health effects are often assumed to be real and taken for granted. While health risk assessments are increasingly conducted, they are sometimes not well grounded and frequently poorly studied. Knowledge of the sensitivity, specificity and predictive value of risk factors in clearly identified target populations is required if appropriate interventions are to be designed. 'Risking systems' are often comprised of risk factors which have little predictive usefulness. In the field of perinatal medicine, the identification of risk factors has a long history. The changing risk status of pregnant women during the prenatal period, in labor, and at the time of delivery poses problems for the research and clinician who rely on risking systems to characterize the likelihood of adverse events. Currently used risking systems, antepartum and intrapartum, are not sufficiently robust for this task. The assignment of a high risk status often results in overcalling a problem and a cascade of technological interventions may follow. In the current climate of 'managing' pregnancies, a thoughtful review of the quality of risking systems is required. Are we being over-risked and over-served?