A scoring system to identify men at high risk of a heart attack

A scoring system for identification of men at high risk of a heart attack within 5 years of screening is presented. The full scoring system includes an electrocardiogram and blood cholesterol measurement and the top fifth of the distribution of this full score yields 59% of the major ischaemic heart disease events occurring in the 5 years after screening. An intermediate scoring system, without an electrocardiogram but retaining blood cholesterol, yields 58% of cases from the top fifth of the score distribution. A basic (GP) score, without electrocardiogram or blood cholesterol measurement, yields 54% of cases and is recommended for use in opportunistic screening in general practice. This high risk strategy would increase public awareness of the size of the problem, help to prevent premature death and provide a useful complement to the population strategies of health education and government policy.