Jove
Visualize
Contact Us
JoVE
x logofacebook logolinkedin logoyoutube logo
ABOUT JoVE
OverviewLeadershipBlogJoVE Help Center
AUTHORS
Publishing ProcessEditorial BoardScope & PoliciesPeer ReviewFAQSubmit
LIBRARIANS
TestimonialsSubscriptionsAccessResourcesLibrary Advisory BoardFAQ
RESEARCH
JoVE JournalMethods CollectionsJoVE Encyclopedia of ExperimentsArchive
EDUCATION
JoVE CoreJoVE BusinessJoVE Science EducationJoVE Lab ManualFaculty Resource CenterFaculty Site
Terms & Conditions of Use
Privacy Policy
Policies

Related Experiment Videos

Scenarios, past, present and future.

R D Zentner

    Long Range Planning
    |May 11, 1982
    PubMed
    Summary
    This summary is machine-generated.

    Strategic planning is not forecasting, as the future is unpredictable. Scenario development, using methods like Delphi and Cross-Impact Analysis, helps manage potential futures for better planning.

    Related Concept Videos

    You might also read

    Related Articles

    Articles linked to this work by shared authors, journal, and citation graph.

    Sort by
    Same author

    Heat guard for the McBain, Bakr sorption balance.

    The Journal of physical and colloid chemistry·2010
    Same author

    Scenarios: a planning tool for health care organizations.

    Hospital & health services administration·1991
    Same journal

    Humanizing strategy.

    Long range planning·2022
    Same journal

    Does Exposure to a Traumatic Event Make Organizations Resilient?

    Long range planning·2020
    Same journal

    Dynamic capabilities and high-tech entrepreneurial ventures' performance in the aftermath of an environmental jolt.

    Long range planning·2020
    Same journal

    On Components, Latent Variables, PLS and Simple Methods: Reactions to Rigdon's Rethinking of PLS.

    Long range planning·2014
    Same journal

    Environmental scanning for Social Services.

    Long range planning·1992
    Same journal

    Strategic group decision support systems--a guide for the unwary.

    Long range planning·1992
    See all related articles

    Area of Science:

    • Strategic planning and foresight methodologies.
    • Decision science and future studies.

    Background:

    • Strategic planning necessitates consideration of future forces, yet forecasting is inherently limited due to unpredictability.
    • Traditional forecasting methods struggle with the inherent uncertainty of the future.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To explore the role of scenario development as a strategic planning tool distinct from forecasting.
    • To review established and emerging methods for creating and utilizing future scenarios.

    Main Methods:

    • Discussion of scenario development as a means to manage a manageable number of potential futures.
    • Overview of 'hard' methods (computer-based, e.g., Meadows, Mesarovic) and 'soft' methods (psychology/sociology-based, e.g., Delphi, Cross-Impact Analysis).
    • Mention of techniques including consensus, iteration-through-synopsis, and cross-impact analysis.

    Related Experiment Videos

    Main Results:

    • Scenario development offers a flexible approach to strategic planning by reducing future possibilities.
    • Both quantitative ('hard') and qualitative ('soft') methods can be employed for scenario creation.
    • Techniques like Delphi and Cross-Impact Analysis provide structured ways to explore future uncertainties.

    Conclusions:

    • Strategic planning should embrace scenario development rather than relying on unreliable forecasting.
    • Alternative scenarios provide a framework for navigating an unpredictable future.
    • A range of methodologies exists to support robust scenario planning.