Planning and management for health in periods of economic stringency and instability: a contingency approach

The mid-1970s marked the end of the longest period of uninterrupted economic growth in history, and initiated in Europe--and other parts of the world--a period of economic stagnation and instability. Along with the prosperity explosion of the past, the pattern of health problems has changed and is still changing. Moreover, the demand for health care has kept on rising, without much improvement of health status in general. Thus, there is a critical need to rethink policies, and to ensure that future changes occur within the limits of shrinking resources and the allotted time-span. In particular, the change in priorities envisaged by the Health for All 2000 (HFA 2000) strategies will need to take place against the background of an ageing population, social instability, and continuing development of new lifestyles and persistent economic scarcity. It is by analysing that background that this article seeks to make recommendations as to how health planning and management might successfully cope with the policy reorientation of the HFA 2000 strategy. The structure of this article is as follows. Firstly, the changes taking place in planning conditions will be reviewed, and form the basis of a framework for subsequent analysis of the planning environment. Following this framework, some of the conflicts likely to be faced in planning and management will be discussed, many of which are the consequence of economic stringency and instability. Also the requirements for an improvement of the effectiveness and efficiency of planning will be identified. Finally, a limited number of approaches to planning will be considered, for their appropriateness to the present-day economic circumstances. The point of view elucidated throughout is that there is no single solution which is 'best' under all circumstances. The conclusion, rather, is that the selection of particular theory or method of planning and management should depend both on the objectives of the decision maker and on the determinants of the planning environment. General prescriptions should not be made. At the same time, some elements have to be stressed in all types of planning, namely: the orientation towards outcomes or outputs of problems; the attention to long-term strategic thinking; and, the application of more efficient, flexible and less bureaucratic approaches.