Manpower planning: a suitable case for treatment?

The article sets out the current pressures on the health service to radically revise the processes of manpower planning in use. Issues discussed include the conventional problems of managing uncertainty over longer timescales and the use of relevant data. However, the need for raised awareness across all professions of the sources of influence on the service is also discussed. The use of scenario planning approaches is suggested. A case example is provided of a trial attempt to examine the major forces influencing the N.W. Thames RHA, in order to derive from them the manpower and training implications. Detailed data from the early stages of the project are presented, illustrating the impact of technological advances and of social trends on health care delivery. Interim conclusions are then drawn from this work.