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Related Experiment Videos

Predicting who develops chronic low back pain in primary care: a prospective study.

E Thomas1, A J Silman, P R Croft

  • 1Arthritis Research Campaign Epidemiology Unit, School of Epidemiology and Health Sciences, Medical School, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PT.

BMJ (Clinical Research Ed.)
|June 18, 1999
PubMed
Summary

Persistent disabling low back pain affects one-third of patients and is linked to psychological distress, poor health, and lifestyle factors. The premorbid state significantly influences long-term outcomes.

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Area of Science:

  • Musculoskeletal health
  • Epidemiology of chronic pain
  • Clinical psychology

Background:

  • Low back pain (LBP) is a leading cause of disability worldwide.
  • Understanding factors predicting persistent LBP is crucial for effective management.
  • Previous research has focused on acute episode characteristics, with less emphasis on premorbid influences.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify the relative contribution of premorbid and episode-specific factors in determining long-term disabling symptoms of low back pain.
  • To identify key predictors for persistent disabling low back pain.

Main Methods:

  • Prospective cohort study involving 180 patients consulting for low back pain.
  • Follow-up at 1 week, 3 months, and 12 months post-consultation.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Assessment of persistent disabling low back pain as the main outcome measure.

    • Main Results:

    • One-third of participants experienced persistent disabling low back pain at 12 months.
    • Factors associated with persistence included increasing age, prior LBP history, and female gender.
    • Significant predictors included premorbid psychological distress, poor self-rated health, low physical activity, smoking, employment dissatisfaction, symptom duration, radiating leg pain, widespread pain, and reduced spinal mobility.

    Conclusions:

    • The persistence of disabling low back pain is influenced by both clinical factors related to the pain episode and the patient's premorbid state.
    • A multivariate model identified distinct risk groups for persistent symptoms, ranging from 6% to 70% likelihood.