The potential effect on hip fracture incidence of mass screening for osteoporosis

With ageing of the Australian population, treatment of osteoporosis-related hip fractures will impose an increasing burden on the healthcare system. Based on current age-adjusted hip fracture incidence and population projections for New South Wales, we estimated a 90% increase in hip fractures by the year 2021. Contributing significantly to this increase will be the number of men reaching the high risk age group for osteoporotic hip fractures. A suggested solution--screening and appropriate therapy for individuals at high risk of osteoporosis--may have only a modest impact. Our calculations show that, even with optimistic screening and therapy compliance rates, hip fractures could still increase by over 50%. Other approaches need to be further explored.