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Related Experiment Videos

Is the AIDS incubation time changing? A back-calculation approach.

S Deuffic1, D Costagliola

  • 1Unité de Recherche Epidémiologie et Sciences de l'Information (INSERM U444), Faculté de Médecine Saint-Antoine, Paris, France.

Statistics in Medicine
|June 23, 1999
PubMed
Summary

The AIDS incubation period shortened in France starting in 1983, affecting all transmission groups. This trend was observed globally and in specific groups like homosexual men and heterosexual individuals.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Virology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Conflicting research existed regarding changes in the incubation period for Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) between 1978 and 1994.
  • Understanding temporal trends in AIDS incubation is crucial for public health strategies and resource allocation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To determine if AIDS incubation time changed in France between 1978 and 1994.
  • To analyze these changes globally and within specific transmission groups, including homosexual-bisexual men and heterosexual individuals.

Main Methods:

  • A back-calculation approach was employed using French AIDS case data.
  • An age-dependent time since infection (TSI) model was utilized, incorporating a temporary treatment effect.
  • The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm and likelihood ratio statistics were used for model selection and parameter estimation.

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Main Results:

  • Analysis of all AIDS cases revealed a significant shortening of the incubation period, beginning around 1983 (95% CI 1982-1984).
  • This observed shortening was consistent across both homosexual-bisexual men and heterosexual transmission groups.
  • For individuals infected at age 30 in 1983, the median incubation time was 9.6 years (95% CI 8.1-10.5), compared to 12.7 years for those infected before this period.

Conclusions:

  • The study provides evidence for a decreasing trend in AIDS incubation time in France from 1983 onwards.
  • This shortening of incubation time was a widespread phenomenon, not limited to specific risk groups.
  • These findings have implications for understanding HIV/AIDS natural history and the impact of interventions.