Predicting outcome of military basic training for individuals referred for psychological evaluation

We examined outcome data for 632 U.S. Air Force personnel who were referred for psychological evaluation during Basic Military Training (BMT) but who were subsequently returned to BMT to determine what proportion graduated. We analyzed motivational, biographical, and psychological testing variables, using logistic regression to develop a model predictive of training outcome. The results demonstrated that a relatively small number of variables could predict outcome with close to 70% accuracy. Level of optimism regarding training, history of physical abuse, and frequency of visits to the trainee health clinic were major contributors to the model. MMPI-2 (Hathaway & McKinley, 1989) Scales D and Sc also remained in the model but added little to its power. The findings are generally consistent with prior research on normal military populations, except that some factors previously linked to adjustment, such as sex and ethnicity, were found to be unrelated to training outcome in this population.