[An analysis of the space-time changes in tick-borne encephalitis morbidity in Novosibirsk Province]

The authors analyzed data on space and time changes in tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) morbidity in Novosibirsk Province from 1955 to 1995 by using the method of principal components (PCs). The first PC (26.0% of total variance) was linearly represented. Judging the the loading scores, this component can be interpreted as redistribution of TBE morbidity rates between southeastern taiga foci in Salair foothills and northern forest-steppe foci in vicinity of the Ob' River valley. The second PC (22.6% of total variance) can be read as regional differences with long-term cyclic changes. The first PC correlated with the annual average temperature (r = 0.45; P < 0.05) and this correlation can be determined by global climate warming-up.