System memory in violent incidents: evidence from patterns of reoccurrence

For 20% of a sample of 1,078 violent incidents reported in British bars and pubs, another incident was reported at the same premises within 6 months. Log-survival analysis revealed nonrandom sequences that demonstrate a system memory effect separate from any biases involving particular venues. The rate of reoccurrence was not constant during the 6 months following incidents but was significantly higher for Weeks 1-4, approximated to the mean value for Weeks 5-12, and declined for Weeks 13-26. Reoccurrence was particularly likely in the first 3-4 days after an incident. Risk of reoccurrence was further increased for incidents that involved either threats or the exit and return of the assailants within that original incident. Results support the view that "violence breeds violence" and demonstrate the need for increased staff vigilance for up to 12 weeks following a violent incident, and particularly during the first few days and weeks.