[Prognosis of short-term outcome in the first admission for psychosis]

The aim of the study was to assess the factors predicting the clinical and therapeutic outcome at discharge of first hospitalization in a population-based sample of patients presenting with psychotic symptoms. Factors predicting duration of the first hospital stay were examined using Cox proportional hazard regression. A family history of psychiatric hospitalization was the only variable independently predicting at trend level a longer hospitalization (HR = 0.54, 95% CI 0.28-1.07, p = 0.08). Since most subjects (92.5%) returned to an independent place of residence in the community after the hospital stay, factors predicting residential outcome were not assessed. Factors associated with persistence of psychotic symptoms, or prescription of antipsychotic drugs, at discharge, were examined using logistic regression models. Persistence of psychotic symptoms (whatever their intensity) was associated with a diagnosis of schizophrenia broadly defined (OR = 23.9, 95% CI 2.8-201.7, p = 0.003), with poor adjustment in the preceding year as measured by the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) scale (OR = 0.93, 95% CI 0.87-0.99, p = 0.04), and, at trend level, with older age at admission (OR = 1.1, 95% CI 0.99-1.21, p = 0.07). Prescription of antipsychotic drugs at discharge was independently predicted by low educational level (OR = 5.5, 95% CI 1.2-25.4, p = 0.03), low GAF score (OR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.90-0.99, p = 0.05), and, at trend level, by a diagnosis of schizophrenia broadly defined (OR = 4.1, 95% CI 0.80-23.4, p = 0.09). Univariate analyses showed that duration of psychosis before first admission was strongly associated with persistence of psychotic symptoms and with prescription of antipsychotic drugs at discharge. However, no association was found between duration of psychosis and outcome after adjustment.