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Phenological changes reflect climate change in Wisconsin.
N L Bradley1, A C Leopold, J Ross
1Aldo Leopold Foundation, E12919, Baraboo, WI 53919, USA.
Summary
Springtime phenological events are occurring earlier due to climate change. This 61-year study in Wisconsin shows a clear trend of earlier seasonal events, impacting local ecosystems.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Climate Science
- Phenology
Background:
- Long-term phenological data are crucial for understanding ecological responses to environmental change.
- Wisconsin has experienced documented shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns over recent decades.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze a 61-year dataset of springtime phenological events in southern Wisconsin.
- To determine if observed phenological shifts correlate with climate change indicators.
- To identify which phenophases are most sensitive to temperature variations.
Main Methods:
- Statistical analysis of 55 distinct phenophases recorded over 61 years.
- Regression analysis to quantify the rate of change in phenological timing.
- Comparison of phenological trends with historical climate data for the study site.
Main Results:
- A significant trend towards earlier springtime phenology was observed, with a mean regression of -0.12 days per year.
- Several phenological events, such as budburst and first flowering, showed marked increases in earliness.
- Phenophases regulated by photoperiod or non-temperature signals did not exhibit significant shifts in timing.
Conclusions:
- The observed trend of earlier springtime events strongly suggests a link to regional climate change.
- Phenological shifts provide a sensitive indicator of climate change impacts on local ecosystems.
- Understanding these shifts is vital for predicting future ecological responses and informing conservation strategies.