[Estimated prevalence of cerebral neoplasm of childhood from the capture-recapture method]

The aim of the study was to estimate the prevalence and fatality rate of primary cerebral neoplasms among children between 1 and 15 years old, State of Bahia, Brazil, 1995. It was a cross-sectional study which includes all cases of brain tumors diagnosed by several sources. From these cases the capture-recapture method was used to estimate the probable number of cases and measure the prevalence and confidence intervals at 95%. By this method it was estimated the existence of 87 cases (CI = 64; 111) of brain tumors in the State, being 72 (CI = 54; 91) in the capital. The estimated prevalence was 1.85/100,000 for children between 1 to 15 years old (CI = 1.36; 2.36/100,000) for the State, and 10.1/100,000 (CI = 7.58; 12.77/100,000) for the capital. The fatality rate was 5.4 percent (CI = 4%; 8%), and 8.9% (CI = 7%; 13%) for the capital and the State respectively. The capture-recapture method showed high precision to estimate the total number of cases. Possible causes of no diagnostic nor treatment of cerebral neoplasms are discussed.