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Related Experiment Videos

The misery index and suicide.

B Yang1, D Lester

  • 1Department of Economics, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA.

Psychological Reports
|September 9, 1999
PubMed
Summary

The original misery index accurately predicted the American suicide rate from 1958 to 1992, outperforming a revised index. This economic indicator remains a valuable tool for understanding societal distress and its impact.

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Area of Science:

  • Sociology
  • Economics
  • Public Health

Background:

  • The misery index, combining inflation and unemployment, has been used to gauge economic hardship.
  • Previous research has explored the relationship between economic factors and mental health outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare the predictive accuracy of the original misery index versus a revised version for the American suicide rate.
  • To assess the long-term validity of economic indicators in forecasting public health crises.

Main Methods:

  • Time-series analysis of economic data (original and revised misery index) and suicide rates in the United States.
  • Statistical comparison of model fit and predictive power from 1958 to 1992.

Main Results:

  • The original misery index demonstrated superior predictive capability for the American suicide rate during the study period.
  • The revised misery index showed lower accuracy in forecasting suicide rates compared to the original formulation.

Conclusions:

  • The original misery index provides a more robust and historically validated predictor of suicide rates than its revised counterpart.
  • Economic conditions, as measured by the original misery index, are significantly correlated with suicide rates, highlighting the importance of economic stability for public well-being.

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