The re-incarnation, re-interpretation and re-demise of the transition probability model

There are two classes of models for the cell cycle that have both a deterministic and a stochastic part; they are the transition probability (TP) models and sloppy size control (SSC) models. The hallmark of the basic TP model are two graphs: the alpha and beta plots. The former is the semi-logarithmic plot of the percentage of cell divisions yet to occur, this results in a horizontal line segment at 100% corresponding to the deterministic phase and a straight line sloping tail corresponding to the stochastic part. The beta plot concerns the differences of the age-at-division of sisters (the beta curve) and gives a straight line parallel to the tail of the alpha curve. For the SC models the deterministic part is the time needed for the cell to accumulate a critical amount of some substance(s). The variable part differs in the various variants of the general model, but they do not give alpha and beta curves with linear tails as postulated by the TP model. This paper argues against TP and for an elaboration of SSC type of model. The main argument against TP is that it assumes that the probability of the transition from the stochastic phase is time invariant even though it is certain that the cells are growing and metabolizing throughout the cell cycle; a fact that should make the transition probability be variable. The SSC models presume that cell division is triggered by the cell's success in growing and not simply the result of elapsed time. The extended model proposed here to accommodate the predictions of the SSC to the straight tailed parts of the alpha and beta plots depends on the existence of a few percent of the cell in a growing culture that are not growing normally, these are growing much slower or are temporarily quiescent. The bulk of the cells, however, grow nearly exponentially. Evidence for a slow growing component comes from experimental analyses of population size distributions for a variety of cell types by the Collins-Richmond technique. These subpopulations existence is consistent with the new concept that there are a large class of rapidly reversible mutations occurring in many organisms and at many loci serving a large range of purposes to enable the cell to survive environmental challenges. These mutations yield special subpopulations of cells within a population. The reversible mutational changes, relevant to the elaboration of SSC models, produce slow-growing cells that are either very large or very small in size; these later revert to normal growth and division. The subpopulations, however, distort the population distribution in such a way as to fit better the exponential tails of the alpha and beta curves of the TP model.