Optimal use of warning signs in traffic

The aim of the paper is to develop a model of drivers' behaviour particularly designed to analyse the safety and total driving cost implications of warning sign installations. One special feature of the model is that it makes a clear distinction between drivers' perceived risk values at certain speeds and their respective objective values. When focusing on a certain stretch of road only, the paper concludes that warning signs will increase safety and probably reduce total objective driving costs; that is the sum of time costs and objective expected accident costs. Since drivers' speed will reduce implying higher time costs per distance, the reduction in total objective driving costs will be lower than the reductions in accident costs. The analysis is then extended to comprise the whole road system and using warning signs prior to curves as an example. Besides the driving conditions in different curves, the analysis shows that the optimal number of signs is dependent on the road authorities' objectives for road traffic and on how drivers form their risk perceptions. Generally speaking, simulations indicate that the safety and economic benefits of warning sign installation are not very high. When considering the whole road system, warning signs seem, however, to have a greater positive impact on total driving costs than on accident costs.