Predicting DSM-III-R disorders from the Youth Self-Report: analysis of data from a field study

To predict DSM-III-R diagnoses from Youth Self-Report (YSR) scores.

The Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children Version 2.1c (DISC-2.1c) and YSR were administered to 289 homeless adolescents. Stepwise discriminant analysis identified YSR scales contributing to predictions of DSM-III-R disorders. Paper-and-pencil prediction rules based on YSR "borderline" or "clinical" scores were evaluated.

Statistically significant discriminant functions for disruptive disorders, depressive disorders, manic disorders, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, schizophrenia, and posttraumatic stress disorder, each based on a unique pair of YSR scales, produced overall hit rates of 0.66 to 0.90. Paper-and-pencil predictions produced comparable results. The weakest overall predictions were for the disruptive behaviors; the best rule ("IF Aggressive OR Delinquent is at least borderline THEN predict oppositional defiant disorder or conduct disorder") produced a 0.72 hit rate. The strongest overall predictions were for schizophrenia; the best prediction rule ("IF [Thought Problems AND Delinquent are at least borderline] AND [at least one is clinical] THEN predict schizophrenia") produced a 0.87 hlt rate.

While the success rates reported here are specific to this sample, it appears that the YSR has good ability to predict DSM-III-R diagnoses as determined by the DISC. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that categorical diagnoses can be treated as locations or cluster sectors in a multidimensional space.