An attempt to analyse progress in fold recognition from CASP1 to CASP3

The Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP) experiment has been conducted for the third time. An obvious question is whether there has been progress from CASP1 to CASP3. An analysis depends on many variables, including prediction category, number and difficulty of targets, methods used to evaluate prediction success, and the rules for submission. It also depends on whether progress is measured in terms of all predictions submitted or in terms of the best predictions for each target. The progress made by individual groups is another interesting issue. In view of this complexity and the limited amount of data, an objective estimate of progress is difficult to obtain. Despite such difficulties, some estimate of progress is desirable. Here, we present an attempt to quantify progress in the fold-recognition category from CASP1 to CASP3. The numbers indicate clear progress from CASP1 to CASP2 but no improvement from CASP2 to CASP3. However, we argue that the targets in CASP3 are more difficult compared with CASP2, which translates into better performance of CASP3 over CASP2.