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Epidemics of violence
1The Alberta Heritage Foundation for Medical Research, Department of Psychiatry, Faculty of Medicine, University of Calgary, Canada. patten@acs.ucalgary.ca
Medical Hypotheses
|December 2, 1999
Summary
Mathematical models for epidemic spread can explain behavioral contagion, like riots. The Kermack-McKendrick model accurately predicts riot outbreaks and effective crowd control strategies.
Area of Science:
- Social psychology
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical modeling
Background:
- Behavioral contagion suggests behaviors spread like diseases.
- Mathematical models are used to study infectious disease dynamics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore the applicability of the Kermack-McKendrick epidemic model to understanding riot outbreaks.
- To compare model predictions with observed crowd behavior and riot control methods.
Main Methods:
- Applied the Kermack-McKendrick mathematical model.
- Compared model predictions to published data on crowd behavior and riot control.
Main Results:
- Model predictions align with observations of riot occurrence.
- The model's insights are consistent with effective riot prevention and control strategies.
Conclusions:
- The Kermack-McKendrick model offers a valuable framework for understanding behavioral contagion in crowds.
- Mathematical modeling can enhance strategies for managing public order and preventing riots.