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Fertility estimation from open birth-interval data.

C P Schmertmann1

  • 1Department of Economics, Florida State University, Tallahassee 32306-2240, USA. schmertmann@fsu.edu

Demography
|December 22, 1999
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

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This study introduces a new maximum likelihood method for estimating period fertility using open-interval data. This efficient approach offers more accurate fertility estimates, especially for smaller demographic samples.

Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Population Studies
  • Statistical Modeling

Background:

  • Censuses and surveys often gather period fertility data via last birth timing.
  • Current methods for open-interval data rely on the proportion of women giving birth in the prior year.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose and validate a more efficient maximum likelihood method for estimating period fertility from open-interval data.
  • To improve the accuracy and reduce the variance of fertility estimates.

Main Methods:

  • Mathematical derivation of a novel maximum likelihood estimator.
  • Sensitivity analyses to assess estimator robustness.
  • Empirical validation using Brazilian census data.

Main Results:

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  • The proposed maximum likelihood estimators demonstrate minimal bias.
  • The new estimators exhibit lower variance compared to standard methods.
  • Empirical tests confirm the method's effectiveness with Brazilian census data.

Conclusions:

  • The new maximum likelihood method provides a more efficient and accurate way to estimate period fertility from open-interval data.
  • This method is particularly advantageous for achieving reliable results from small or moderately sized demographic samples.