Prospective multivariate analysis of factors predictive of complete regression of Barrett's esophagus

Demographic, endoscopic, and histological features of Barrett's esophagus at initial diagnosis were examined for their ability to predict complete endoscopic and histological regression of Barrett's during long-term follow-up.

Barrett's patients who have been followed up for a minimum of 2 yr and who have had at least two follow-up surveillance examinations were included in the analysis. Complete regression of Barrett's was defined as total disappearance of all tongues and patches of Barrett's epithelium at endoscopy (confirmed with Lugol's iodine) in conjunction with only squamous epithelium on biopsy. Chi2 and stepwise logistic regression analyses were performed on the following clinical, endoscopic, and histological variables with regards to their ability to predict complete Barrett's regression: patient age in years (<65 or > or =65), length in cm of Barrett's (< or =2, >2<6, and > or =6), presence of a hiatal hernia (yes or no), presence of dysplasia at diagnosis (yes or no), and type of long-term medical treatment (histamine antagonists, proton pump inhibitor [PPI], or PPI and cisapride).

Ninety-nine patients, all men with a mean age +/- SD in years of 61.6+/-13.1 have been followed prospectively for 24-106 months (mean +/- SD, 48.0+/-19.8). Seven patients have had complete regression of Barrett's. Univariate analysis showed that complete regression of Barrett's was associated only with absence of a hiatal hernia (p = 0.012). Stepwise logistic regression analysis revealed that complete regression was significantly and independently associated again only with absence of a hiatal hernia (p = 0.025). Stepwise logistic regression analysis utilizing only hiatal hernia (yes vs no) and length of Barrett's (<6 cm vs > or =6 cm) as variables revealed that absence of a hiatal hernia (p = 0.0447) and shorter lengths (<6 cm) of Barrett's (p = 0.0418) were significantly and independently predictive of complete Barrett's regression.

The absence of a hiatal hernia was noted to be the most important factor associated with Barrett's regression. Complete regression of Barrett's esophagus occurs in a minority of patients, primarily in those with no hiatal hernia and shorter lengths of Barrett's epithelium.