[The dependence of the very old: a future shock, an ardent anticipatory obligation]

After the projections undertaken by the National Institute of Statistics, the number of the non-autonomous elderly will increase to 762,000 (optimistic scenario) or 1,185,000 (pessimistic scenario) in 2020 from 666,800 in 1990. It is noteworthy that the starting point of dependency occurs mainly between the ages of 80 and 85. This means that the number of depending elderly will accelerate sharply its growth after the year 2020. For the time being, the non-autonomous elderly people are generally cared about by their own families. However, in the future, new collective behaviors, in particular the higher female participation rate to economic activity may change fundamentally the issue. How to find a sufficient amount of resources to cover the care provided to the very old? The emergency of the question, due to the upcoming arrival of the baby boom cohorts at retirement age, is not perceived in France for the time being.