Seasonality and infectious disease in schizophrenia: the birth hypothesis revisited

Research literature supports the notion that more people diagnosed with schizophrenia are born during the winter months than other seasons [O'Hare A, Walsh D, Torrey F. Seasonality of schizophrenia births in Ireland. Br J Psychiatry 1980;137:74 7; Pulver AE, Stewart W, Carpenter WT, Jr., Childs B. Risk factors in schizophrenia: season of birth in Maryland, USA. Br J Psychiatry 1983;143:389-96.]. Researchers have postulated that this surge in winter-birth schizophrenia may be related to increases in viral infectious such as influenza and measles [Watson CG, Kucala T, Tilleskjor C, Jacobs L. Schizophrenic birth seasonality in relation to incidence of infectious diseases and temperature extremes. Arch Gen Psychiatry 1984:41:85-90; Mednick SA, Machon RA, Huttunen MO, Bonnett D. Adult schizophrenia following prenatal exposure to an influenza epidemic. Arch Gen Psychiatry 1988;45:189-92.]. However, data supporting significant relationships between infectious disease and schizophrenia incidence has been equivocal [Kendell R, Kemp I. Maternal influenza in the etiology of schizophrenia. Arch Gen Psychiatry 1989;46:878-82; McGrath J, Castle D. Does influenza cause schizophrenia? A five year review. Aust N Z J Psychiatry 1995;29:23-31.]. The purpose of this study was to replicate and expand previous studies by examining seasonal and infectious disease influences on schizophrenia prevalence. It was hypothesized that: (1) there would be an increase in schizophrenia prevalence during the winter months; and (2) that a significant amount of variability in schizophrenia birthrates would be accounted for by rates of influenza and measles. A Georgia Medicaid database (N = 746,615) and statewide infectious disease tables were used to identify correlations. Medicaid recipients were divided into schizophrenia (n = 11,736) and non-schizophrenia (n = 734,879) groups. A ratio of schizophrenic recipients to non-schizophrenic recipients was calculated for each birth cohort represented by each month of the year from 1948-1965. Multiple regression analyses indicated a significant relationship between winter season and schizophrenia incidence. However, neither influenza nor measles was predictive of schizophrenia prevalence. These findings were made using one of the largest sample of schizophrenic individuals in the literature to date. Limitations of the study are discussed, including the use of seasonal and prevalence correlations without data on patient linked maternal infections.