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Physician-evaluated and self-reported morbidity for predicting disability.

K F Ferraro1, Y P Su

  • 1Department of Sociology, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Ind. 47907-1365, USA. ferraro@purdue.edu

American Journal of Public Health
|January 12, 2000
PubMed
Summary

Self-reported health conditions, particularly chronic non-serious illnesses, better predict long-term disability than physician evaluations. This finding highlights the value of patient-reported outcomes in assessing future functional limitations.

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Area of Science:

  • Gerontology
  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Assessing long-term functional disability is crucial for public health planning and individual care.
  • Disability prediction often relies on clinical assessments, but patient self-reports may offer complementary insights.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare the predictive validity of physician-evaluated morbidity versus self-reported morbidity on subsequent adult disability.
  • To identify which type of morbidity measure is a stronger predictor of future disability.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from a large national survey (n=6913) with baseline medical examinations and self-reported health conditions.
  • Employed tobit regression models to analyze the relationship between baseline morbidity measures and disability outcomes at 10 and 15 years.

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Main Results:

  • Both physician-evaluated and self-reported morbidity were associated with increased disability.
  • Self-reported chronic non-serious illnesses demonstrated superior predictive validity for future disability compared to physician assessments.
  • Obesity and lower socioeconomic status were also linked to higher disability levels.

Conclusions:

  • Self-reported morbidity measures possess significant predictive utility for functional disability.
  • Patient-reported health status is a valuable tool for forecasting long-term disability and informing health interventions.