Environmental impacts on offspring survival during the lambing period in central Patagonia

Weather conditions are the main factors affecting the survival rate of newborn lambs. In the windy climate of Patagonia, the influence of weather conditions is exacerbated as the wind speed increases noticeably in spring. If the wind increases faster than the temperature rises, wind chill conditions worsen temporarily. This departure from the predictable improvement in bioclimatic conditions as the season moves towards summer may coincide with lambing, if this is not adequately regulated. This paper explores bioclimatic conditions during the 2-month period in which lambing may take place (i.e. mid-September to mid-November), and identifies the unfavourable period that occurs in the second fortnight of October. Starting from the Mount and Brown (Agric Meteorol 27:241-255, 1982) model to assess thermal stress in sheep by means of common meteorological records, a simpler model was developed employing in long-term records. For 2-week averages of temperature (Tf), wind speed (Vf) and total precipitation (Pf), the average heat loss in sheep (HLf) was 40.40 - 2.07Tf + 5.64Vf + 0.04Pf. (r2 = 0.95). A 24-year series of Tf, Vf and Pf data was employed in the calculation of HLf, and results showed this parameter was significantly higher in the second fortnight in October. HLf values were classified into four groups (from "very good" to "very bad" conditions); once again, significant differences appeared in the second fortnight in October. Finally, HLf during the lambing period was correlated to the percentage of lambs surviving 2 months later. Significant differences between the survival of lambs born under "very bad" and "very good" conditions were found, but intermediate HLf conditions did not show a clear pattern. The survival rate was best correlated to HLf in the fortnight preceding lambing (P < 0.05). This suggests that bioclimatic conditions during late pregnancy are at least as important as conditions during lambing in determining the survival lambs.