A population-based study of the effectiveness of breast conservation for newly diagnosed breast cancer

Our objective was to evaluate the effectiveness of breast conservation for newly diagnosed breast cancer. Effectiveness was operationalized as two outcomes within 5 years of the diagnosis of breast cancer: the probability of mastectomy-free survival (either death or mastectomy count as event, whichever comes first), and the probability of mastectomy conditional on survival (mastectomy counts as event, observations censored at death).

We linked records of 46,687 new cases of breast cancer from 1982 to 1991 in the Ontario Cancer Registry to records of surgery from 1982 to 1995, radiotherapy (RT) from 1982 to 1992, and median household income from the 1986 census. We labeled breast surgery within 4 months and postoperative RT within 12 months of diagnosis as treatment for newly diagnosed breast cancer. Surgery was categorized as mastectomy, lumpectomy plus RT, lumpectomy alone, or no surgical procedure. Among cases that did not undergo mastectomy within 4 months of diagnosis, we labeled mastectomy subsequent to 4 months after diagnosis as treatment failure. We performed life-table analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression, to describe the probability of mastectomy conditional on survival and the probability of mastectomy-free survival.

A total of 16,279 cases underwent lumpectomy as the maximum procedure on the breast within 4 months of diagnosis, and 49.7% of these received postoperative RT. Compared to the provincial mean, regions with higher rates of lumpectomy plus RT have higher probability of mastectomy-free survival and lower probability of mastectomy conditional upon survival 5 years after diagnosis of breast cancer.

These findings are consistent with a hypothesis that breast conservation is effective in the overall breast cancer population of Ontario within the first 5 years after diagnosis.