Prognostic value of a new scoring system for hospital mortality in acute renal failure

In order to define a prognostic scoring system for hospital mortality of individual patients with acute renal failure (ARF), data were collected prospectively in a single centre study (Stuivenberg General Hospital, Antwerp, Belgium) on 197 adult patients consecutively admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) during one year. Mean age was 69.8 (+/- 14.7), male/female ratio was 118/79.

Hospital mortality was 53%, 26% of the patients who were treated with renal replacement therapy. For developing the model all parameters showing a significant difference between survivors and non-survivors were entered in the multivariate analysis. Two SHARF scores (= Stuivenberg Hospital Acute Renal Failure scores) were developed, one at the time of diagnosis of ARF (T0) and the other 48 hours later (T48): SHARF T0 (7 x age) + (6 x alb0) + (3 x PTT0) + (39 x vent0) + (9 x heartf0) + 52 SHARF T48 (7 x age) + (6 x alb0) + (3 x PTT0) + (43 x vent48) + (16 x heartf48) + 52 age, albumin (alb0) and prothrombine time (PTT0) at T0 are expressed as categories, respiratory support (vent) and heart failure (heartf) at T0 and T48 are presented as absent (0) or present (1). In the linear regression model, r2 was, respectively, 0.36 and 0.43. The area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves, judging the discrimination ability between survivors and non-survivors, for T0 and T48 were, respectively, 0.87 and 0.90. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit C statistic for T0 was C = 8.47; df8; p = 0.3 89 and for T48 C = 11.05; df = 8; p = 0.199.

We conclude that this scoring system, developed for all types of ARF, compares favorably with published scores and can become useful as a bedside tool for predicting hospital mortality in individual patients. A second measuring point increased the predictive value of the model. The results have to be confirmed in an ongoing prospective multicentre study.