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Partitioning linear trends in age-adjusted rates.

B F Hankey1, L A Ries, C L Kosary

  • 1Cancer Statistics Branch, Cancer Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Maryland 20892-7352, USA. bh43a@nih.gov

Cancer Causes & Control : CCC
|February 19, 2000
PubMed
Summary

This study introduces a method to break down overall chronic disease trends into specific disease contributions. This helps analyze the impact of interventions and risk factors on public health.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Biostatistics
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Chronic disease surveillance involves monitoring age-adjusted rates and trends.
  • Understanding disease-specific contributions to overall trends is crucial for assessing interventions and risk factors.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a method for partitioning linear trends in age-adjusted rates into disease-specific components.
  • To analyze the contribution of specific cancers to the overall decreasing trend in cancer mortality.

Main Methods:

  • The study utilizes linear regression to partition trends.
  • The method is demonstrated using age-adjusted cancer mortality rates in the United States from 1991-1996.

Main Results:

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  • Specific cancers, including colorectal, breast, lung, and prostate, accounted for 75% of the observed decrease in overall cancer mortality.
  • The method allows for the quantification of individual disease impact on population health trends.

    • Conclusions:

    • A linear regression-based method can effectively partition overall age-adjusted rate trends into disease-specific components.
    • This approach is applicable when trends for the overall population and its subgroups are linear.