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Projecting future drug expenditures--2000.

B Mehl1, J P Santell

  • 1The Mount Sinai Hospital, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA.

American Journal of Health-System Pharmacy : AJHP : Official Journal of the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists
|February 25, 2000
PubMed
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Drug costs are projected to rise 12-15% in 2000 due to new drug development and industry changes. Rising prescription drug expenditures and the impact of pharmacogenomics are key factors influencing future drug pricing and accessibility.

Area of Science:

  • Health Economics
  • Pharmaceutical Industry Analysis
  • Drug Development Trends

Background:

  • Drug costs are a significant concern for patients and healthcare systems.
  • The pharmaceutical landscape is rapidly evolving with new technologies and market dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To project drug costs for the year 2000.
  • To identify key factors influencing these costs.
  • To analyze the impact of industry trends on drug accessibility.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of drug cost trends and expenditure projections.
  • Review of factors influencing pharmaceutical pricing, including R&D investment and mergers.
  • Assessment of the impact of emerging technologies like pharmacogenomics and online pharmacies.

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Main Results:

  • Projected drug cost increase of 12-15% in 2000.
  • Average annual prescription drug expenditure increase of 11.2% between 1999-2001.
  • Anticipated launch of new, potentially expensive drugs and increased generic drug sales.

Conclusions:

  • Significant increases in drug costs are expected, driven by innovation and market consolidation.
  • Emerging trends like pharmacogenomics and internet pharmacies will reshape the industry.
  • High drug costs may limit patient access, potentially prompting government intervention.