Predictors of death and reinfarction at 30 days after primary angioplasty: the GUSTO IIb and RAPPORT trials

Thirty-day death among recipients of fibrinolytic therapy for acute myocardial infarction (MI) is tightly correlated with easily obtainable key demographic and clinical parameters such as age, blood pressure, heart rate, and infarct location. Similar data for primary angioplasty are not available.

Data from 2 large, contemporary, primary angioplasty trials were formally combined and analyzed with respect to death and death/repeat MI at 30 days through the use of multivariate logistic regression models. The 1048 patients had a median age of 62 years, and 26% were women. Thirty-eight percent had an anterior infarction. The patients underwent angioplasty at a median delay from symptom onset of 3.8 hours. Death was independently predicted by increasing age (adjusted odds ratio [OR] per decade 2.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.60 to 3.42), whereas a history of smoking (OR 0.29, CI 0.13 to 0.64), Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) flow grade 3 after angioplasty (OR vs TIMI <3 0.21, CI 0.10 to 0.45) and higher systolic blood pressure (OR per 10 mm Hg 0.73, CI 0.62 to 0. 87) were associated with lower mortality rates. Death or repeat MI was independently associated with increasing age (OR per decade 1.40, CI 1.13 to 1.76) and anterior location of the index MI (OR 1.89, CI 1.12 to 3.20). TIMI grade 3 flow (OR vs TIMI <3 0.40, CI 0.23 to 0. 68) and higher systolic blood pressure (OR per 10 mm Hg 0.79, CI 0. 71 to 0.89) were associated with a lower incidence of death/repeat MI. Time to angioplasty, heart rate, extent of coronary artery disease, participation in 1 of the 2 trials, and all common coronary risk factors did not significantly predict outcome.

Death and reinfarction after primary angioplasty are predominantly predicted by age, hemodynamic instability, and the attainment of TIMI 3 flow in the infarct artery.