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Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures
1Department of Geological Sciences, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor 48109-1063, USA.
Nature
|February 29, 2000
Summary
Subsurface temperature data from 616 boreholes reveal that Earth has warmed approximately 1 K over the past 500 years. This borehole data provides a crucial long-term climate perspective, complementing traditional temperature proxies and instrumental records.
Area of Science:
- Paleoclimatology
- Earth Science
- Climate Change Research
Background:
- Accurate assessment of Earth's climate variability and anthropogenic influence requires long-term temperature reconstructions.
- Instrumental records are limited to the past 150 years, necessitating reliance on climate proxy records.
- Traditional climate proxies have inherent strengths and limitations in capturing climatic variability.
Purpose of the Study:
- To reconstruct century-long temperature trends over the past 500 years using subsurface temperature data.
- To provide an independent archive of past surface temperature changes complementary to instrumental and proxy records.
- To assess global, hemispheric, and continental temperature changes over the last five centuries.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of present-day subsurface temperatures from 616 boreholes across all continents except Antarctica.
- Reconstruction of past temperature trends based on heat conduction into the Earth.
- Comparison of borehole-derived trends with instrumental records and conventional climate proxies.
Main Results:
- Confirmed the significant warming observed in the twentieth century through instrumental records.
- Estimated a cumulative temperature increase of approximately 1 K over the past 500 years.
- Indicated that borehole-derived cumulative warming exceeds recent estimates from conventional climate proxies.
Conclusions:
- Subsurface temperature data from boreholes offer a valuable method for detecting long-term climate trends.
- Borehole data provide a complementary perspective to conventional climate proxies and instrumental records.
- Further investigation is needed to reconcile differences between borehole data and other climate reconstruction approaches for a comprehensive understanding of past warming.
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