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Related Experiment Videos

Invasion thresholds for fungicide resistance: deterministic and stochastic analyses

Gubbins1, Gilligan

  • 1Churchill College, Cambridge, UK. sg202@cam.ac.uk

Proceedings. Biological Sciences
|February 29, 2000
PubMed
Summary

Fungicide resistance risk is better understood with a new model. This model predicts when resistant strains invade based on fungicide application and pathogen fitness, aiding resistance management.

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Area of Science:

  • Agricultural Science
  • Mathematical Biology
  • Ecology

Background:

  • Fungicide resistance poses a significant challenge in agriculture, yet population-level understanding remains limited.
  • Existing knowledge gaps hinder effective management strategies for preventing widespread resistance.
  • The dynamics of host-parasite interactions and chemical control are complex and require robust modeling.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a mathematical model for analyzing fungicide resistance risk in botanical epidemics.
  • To incorporate host-parasite dynamics, demographic stochasticity, and fungicide application parameters.
  • To identify thresholds for the invasion of fungicide-resistant strains.

Main Methods:

  • Introduction of a simple nonlinear model for fungicide resistance.

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  • Inclusion of fungicide dynamics (amount, longevity, frequency) and host population parameters.
  • Analysis of demographic stochasticity in host-parasite interactions.
  • Main Results:

    • The model reveals critical thresholds for resistant strain invasion, dependent on relative fitness and control effectiveness.
    • Below the threshold, resistant strains are eliminated; above it, invasion probability increases.
    • Fungicide decay rate, application amount, and frequency significantly influence control effectiveness and resistance development timelines.

    Conclusions:

    • The developed model provides a quantitative framework for assessing fungicide resistance risk.
    • Grower-controlled parameters like fungicide application can influence resistance development.
    • The model's principles are applicable to other forms of chemical resistance, including herbicides and antibiotics.