Forecasting and prevention of epidemic malaria: new perspectives on an old problem

There is a clear need for improved epidemic malaria surveillance mechanisms in areas prone to the disease. Epidemiological surveillance systems are rarely able to provide information in a sufficiently timely manner for adequate epidemic response. This is especially true in African countries where surveillance is poorly developed, and particularly so in remote regions of unstable malaria such as desert fringes. There is long standing evidence linking climatic variability and epidemic risk. The last ten years have seen significant developments in Environmental Information System (EIS) for a range of natural resource management purposes. The routine information products from these systems have been shown to be both spatially and temporally related to malaria transmission indicators across the African continent. EIS may therefore provide a useful and cost effective input to epidemic malaria control planning and response.