Estimating age-related trends in cross-sectional studies using S-distributions

Growth trends in children are often based on cross-sectional studies, in which a sample of the population is investigated at one given point in time. Estimating age-related percentiles in such studies involves fitting data distributions, each of which is specific for one age group, and a subsequent smoothing of the percentile curves. The first requirement for this process is the selection of a distributional form that is expected to be consistent with the observed data. If a goodness-of-fit test reveals significant discrepancies between the data and the best-fitting member of this distributional form, an alternative distribution must be found. In practice, there is seldom an objective argument for selecting any particular distribution. Also, different distributions can yield very similar fits, so that any selection is somewhat arbitrary. Finally, the shapes of the observed distributions may change throughout the age range so drastically that no single traditional distribution can fit them all in a satisfactory manner. To overcome these difficulties in population studies, non-parametric smoothing techniques and normalizing transformations have been used to derive percentile curves. In this paper we present an alternative strategy in the form of a flexible parametric family of statistical distributions: the S-distribution. We suggest a method that guides the search for well-fitting S-distributions for groups of observed distributions. The method is first tested with simulated data sets and subsequently applied to actual weight distributions of girls of different ages. As far as the results can be tested, they are consistent with observations and with results from other methods.