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Selective referral to high-volume hospitals: estimating potentially avoidable deaths
R A Dudley1, K L Johansen, R Brand
1Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, and the Institute for Health Policy Studies, University of California, San Francisco, 94118, USA. adudley@itsa.ucsf.edu
Referring patients to high-volume hospitals (HVHs) can significantly reduce mortality for complex conditions. In California, an estimated 602 deaths could be avoided annually by directing care to HVHs.
Area of Science:
- Healthcare outcomes research
- Health services research
- Surgical outcomes analysis
Background:
- Evidence suggests high-volume hospitals (HVHs) have lower mortality rates than low-volume hospitals (LVHs) for specific procedures.
- Despite this evidence, referral of patients to HVHs remains limited in practice.
- This gap highlights a need to investigate the potential benefits of increased HVH utilization.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the difference in hospital mortality between HVHs and LVHs for conditions with robust data.
- To estimate the number of deaths in California that could be prevented by referring patients to HVHs.
Main Methods:
- A comprehensive literature search (1983-1998) identified studies on hospital volume and mortality.
- The highest-quality study for each condition was selected to calculate odds ratios (ORs) for in-hospital mortality.
- These ORs were applied to the 1997 California hospital discharge database to estimate avoidable deaths.
Main Results:
- Mortality was significantly lower at HVHs for 11 complex conditions, including various surgeries and HIV/AIDS treatment.
- In California, 58,306 patients with these conditions were treated at LVHs in 1997.
- An estimated 602 deaths (95% CI, 304-830) at LVHs were attributable to low hospital volume.
Conclusions:
- Facilitating patient referral to HVHs offers a significant potential to reduce overall hospital mortality in California for identified conditions.
- Further research is necessary to assess the feasibility of selective referral strategies and their potential consequences.
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